So, the idea is that we surrender to the wishes of the Russian Federation, is that right Mr President?

In a public statement, the President of the United States described Putin as “a guy who’s very savvy. I know him very well. Very, very well.

Last year the US put forward a 28-point peace plan for Ukraine which some believe originated in the Russian Federation. Some reports suggested that Senator Marco Rubio described the plan as reflecting a Russian “wish list,” though he later denied this.

Following this we had a leaked telephone conversation where we understand from Steve Witkoff that he has been advising Yuri Ushakov, a Russian Foreign Policy Advisor on how to sweet-talk President Trump and make him feel important at the same time as discussing land swaps in Ukraine when no one else had been consulted including Ukraine and the European Union.

 Taken together, these developments appeared poorly coordinated. But before we look at the 28-point peace plan, what is really going on? Let’s look at some of the background to this tragedy.

Putin believes he is already at war with NATO and the countries in Europe and not just with Ukraine. He is especially aggrieved with the UK whom he blames for the fall of the Soviet Union. In fact, he probably has an obsession with the UK and will do everything possible to destabilise the country.

I think he realises he can’t easily win the war on the ground in Ukraine but thinks he can definitely win the hybrid war against the West. We should acknowledge his success so far in this hybrid war which involves cyber-attacks, sabotage, targeted assassinations and destabilisation of certain EU countries using so called agents of influence. And he has some support in the West from various political parties on the extremes of politics which the Russian Federation actively supports and he also has some support from the governments of countries such as Slovakia and Hungary.

In addition to his objectives in Ukraine, he is widely understood to have five broader strategic aims:

1. Split the United States from the European Union.

2. Prevent the expansion of NATO and ensure the United States leaves the organisation.

3. Erode the ability of EU countries to act in a coordinated fashion.

4. Destabilise the governance of target countries by making funding available to certain political parties. Some in the United Kingdom are calling on the government to reopen the investigation of Russian money in British politics.

5. Use well tested bullying tactics to limit support for Ukraine from the coalition of the willing.

So, what were some of the 28 points of Trump’s peace proposal:

1. The parties to the agreement will confirm Ukrainian sovereignty?

2. There will be a comprehensive non-aggression agreement between Russia, Ukraine and Europe?

3. It is hoped that Russia will not invade neighbouring countries and NATO will not expand further.

4. Ukraine will receive security guarantees?

5. Ukraine will have to limit the size of its armed forces to 600,000.

6. Ukraine will agree that it will not join NATO and NATO agrees to include in its statues that Ukraine will not be admitted in the future.

7. NATO would agree not to station troops in Ukraine.

8. Russia will be reintegrated into the global economy:

The lifting of sanctions will be discussed and agreed upon in stages and on a case-by-case basis. Russia will be invited to re-join the G8.

9. Frozen funds will be used as follows:

$100bn in frozen Russian assets will be invested in US-led efforts to rebuild and invest in Ukraine;

The US will receive 50 percent of the profits from this venture. Europe will add $100bn to increase the amount of investment available for Ukraine’s reconstruction. Frozen European funds will be unfrozen. The remainder of the frozen Russian funds will be invested in a separate US-Russian investment vehicle that will implement joint projects in specific areas. This fund will be aimed at strengthening relations and increasing common interests to create a strong incentive not to return to conflict.

10. Russia will enshrine in law its policy of non-aggression towards Europe and Ukraine?

11. Territories:

Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk will be recognised as de facto Russian, including by the US. Kherson and Zaporizhia will be frozen along the line of contact, which will mean de facto recognition along the line of contact.

Ukrainian forces will withdraw from the part of Donetsk oblast that they currently control, and this withdrawal zone will be considered a neutral demilitarised buffer zone, internationally recognised as territory belonging to the Russian Federation. 

12. All parties involved in this conflict will receive full amnesty for their actions during the war and agree not to make any claims or consider any complaints in the future.

13. This agreement will be legally binding. Its implementation will be monitored and guaranteed by the Peace Council, headed by President Donald J Trump. Sanctions will be imposed for violations.

Unfortunately, this looks much like capitulation and a reward for the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The Russian economy is in a bad state with rising inflation and it should be remembered that the size of the EU economy is 12 times that of Russia. 

Maybe Russia is talking because Putin is concerned about further sanctions and also an agreement in the EU to use the frozen Russian assets. Additionally, Russia does not want to instigate a general call up of young men to go to Ukraine where casualties are running at 1000 per day.

Europe is alone as the US has given every indication that it may have sided with Russia. This raises questions about the nature and extent of Russian influence on US decision-making.

Some recent developments in US politics have prompted concerns about democratic backsliding and increased tolerance of far-right movements. It has given every indication that it wants to degrade democracy, human rights and the rule of law in Europe and actively support the populist parties In Europe.

The coalition of the willing in Europe must stand firm and acknowledge they are on their own. They are approaching the last chance saloon. Whilst making every effort to maintain diplomatic relations with the US, Europe must recognize that they need to raise defence expenditure as quickly as possible which to be fair they have already shown is feasible. They must also ensure that all the parties involved in the war in Ukraine must be included in any negotiations. It should be remembered that Putin may have thought he had many reasons for attacking Ukraine but this does not hide the fact that he invaded Ukraine.  

And Europe is capable of defending itself if it continues to increase defence expenditure at its present rate. A look at the numbers is helpful:

NATO spent $1506 billion on defence in 2024.

The US share of this was $997 billion and European NATO members spent $454 billion. It is estimated that Russia spent $149 billion on defence in 2924. The UK is the sixth biggest spender on defence worldwide spending $82 billion in 2024.

One of the problems for Europe is interoperability. For example, the US has one type of tank whereas the Europeans 14 and the US has 6 fighters and the Europeans 20.

And whilst the Europeans have 178 different weapons systems the US manages with 30.

It will take a little time for Europe to become self-sufficient but whatever happens in the future it will be Ukraine who ultimately has to decide its own future and this will depend on the level of support it receives from NATO members.

Antony Frost has run a successful business in the horticultural industry and joined TEAM because of his lifelong interest in world affairs. He holds a degree from the University of London, was a parliamentary candidate in 1999 and is a member of numerous think-tanks including: The Federal Trust, The Global Policy Institute, The Wyndham Place Charlemagne Trust and Unlock Democracy. He has organised numerous study tours, in the course of which, he has worked closely with leaders of Brussels Lobby groups and senior personnel in the European Union. 

The views and opinions expressed in our International Insights are strictly those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views, policies, or positions of TEAM Global or its affiliates.