Author: Keith Best TD, MA, Cert in Public Management Services
Observers of the European and global situation will observe the New Year with trepidation. Over Christmas we wished and prayed for peace in the world but will it be realised? A new Trump Presidency with several foreign policy intentions announced even before assuming office. This could lead to a tariff war involving not only China but also Canada, Mexico, the EU and the UK. Dark hints at turning Canada into a US state and invading Panama to regain control of the Canal are but some of the threats – we are moving into an era of even greater disinformation and disingenuity. Our Prime Minister at the mansion House speech rejected a choice between the USA and Europe as an ally, stating that the UK needs both. He is right – but can a Labour Government achieve that delicate straddling of two horses? Both our newly appointed Ambassador to Washington and our Foreign Secretary (not to mention the Prime Minister himself) have lambasted the new President – hardly an auspicious start to rebuilding that “special relationship” much vaunted by Churchill!
Admittedly, the start of the relationship was not propitious: a war of independence with atrocities committed on both sides followed by a further war in 1812 in which the UK burned the White House and tensions over the cotton trade during the Civil War. The term “special relationship” had its origins in that century but was promoted by Churchill during the Second World War. Since then it has undergone some trauma: Macmillan agreed to supplant the UK’s Vulcan bomber nuclear deterrent with American Polaris missiles, rendering the UK obligated to the USA for their maintenance and upgrade. The Suez Crisis of 1956 and rapid decolonisation in the 1960s sounded the death-knell of the UK as a global power and we became very much a junior, some would say subservient, partner in the relationship – as evidenced in us following US foreign policy in the Gulf Wars and on other issues. The UK may have soft power and be regarded still as a haven in which the rule of law can frustrate a government and protect its citizens against abuse of power which remains the envy in many other countries, where judgment and tolerance still curtail impetuosity but we delude ourselves and no others if we pretend that we have real international clout. That does not mean that we should not always endeavour to be a force for good and a moderator in conflict.
What of Ukraine and the Middle East? President Trump has vowed to end the war in a day – but on what terms? A cease-fire along the lines of current occupation (Crimea, the Donbas and more) will not satisfy the Ukrainians despite their war-weariness and soldier shortage unless there is a security guarantee – but NATO membership is not on the cards (made clear to me by the Ambassador of a major eastern European member country recently on the basis that you cannot have only part of a country joining as well as a belief that Ukraine is the extent of Russia’s ambition – on which many might disagree). We should not forget that the Russian people have been told by Putin that they are already at war with NATO so a cyber or other attack (probably already done) on a NATO country would come as no surprise even if a military one would clearly escalate the situation. What is also chilling is that the decision to use tactical battlefield nuclear weapons is devolved to the Russian army commanders and would not necessarily require Kremlin approval. The capacity for a major mistake or misunderstanding is manifest.
Having lived through the Cold War and the concept of Mutually Assured Destruction as well as in my military days having stared across the Inner German Border (as it then was) at the Soviet Third Shock Army several divisions deep against our one Third Armoured Division I still felt that it was more stable than our current situation – we should not underestimate the risk.
What can we do as a nation? Whether some of our citizens like it or not we are an integral part of Europe and must play our full part in safeguarding security on our own continent – whatever the attitude of the incumbent in the White House. From the days of Peter the Great Russia has been an expansive power and rues its loss of territory and influence caused by its break-up following Perestroika and Glasnost. It has always respected strength in its adversaries.
2025 will be a decisive year but the uncertainty is whether for good or ill. Both pessimists and optimists will have a field day! I tend to be one of the former. Rather than the grim scenario I have painted the bluster of a new President may achieve more in threat than in execution. Russia may get to keep the Crimea and Donbas but on humiliating terms for Russia with the rest of Ukraine’s independence guaranteed by European (NATO) peacemakers on its territory (NATO membership through the back door). Trump may increase sanctions and manipulate oil prices to confirm the wreckage of the Russian economy and Putin may fall. Similar strong-arm tactics may impact on China (which cannot afford a trade war) and Iran (which cannot afford a concerted Israeli/USA attack. We were similarly worried about a Reagan Presidency but it led to glasnost and perestroika. Trump will not want to see his authority diminished by isolationism even if gift-wrapped to look like America First – he cannot afford to distance his country from Europe and its heritage. You take your pick. I have taken mine because I want to sleep at night!
Keith Best TD, MA is a former Conservative Member of Parliament (MP) for Anglesey/Ynys Môn and served as the Parliamentary Private Secretary to the Secretary of State for Wales. Major in airborne and commando (artillery) forces, practising barrister, liveryman (Loriner), and Freeman of the City of London, Keith was named one of the 100 most influential people in public services in the UK by Society Guardian. Keith has made significant contributions to international refugee and human rights initiatives, including serving as Vice Chair of the European Council on Refugees and Exiles and as a member of the Foreign Secretary’s Advisory Panel on Torture Prevention. He is the Chair & CEO of the Wyndham Place Charlemagne Trust, Chair of the Universal Peace Federation (UK), patron of TEAM Global, and a trustee of several national and international organisations.
The views and opinions expressed in our International Insights are strictly those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views, policies, or positions of TEAM Global or its affiliates.
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